Changes in hospital care

Kleve/Kamp-Lintfort, 21 September 2015: Prof. Dr Frank Schmitz, Professor of Business Administration at Rhine-Waal University of Applied Sciences, has developed, in collaboration with Deloitte’s Analytics Institute and Health Care Consulting, a forecasting tool for the objective and valid assessment of future healthcare demand: the “Deloitte Health Care Indicator”. Prof. Dr Frank Schmitz explains: “This indicator makes it possible to assess and determine whether measures to reduce or restructure existing overcapacity and undercapacity in hospitals will still be appropriate in the future.”

Primary and emergency care for residents in Germany is currently guaranteed nationwide and close to home by around 2,000 hospitals. Due to political and social demands, as well as demographic change, hospitals are subject to a constant process of change. Regional over- or under-provision of care for the population is also at the heart of the current debate on the Hospital Structure Act: there is a significant imbalance between urban and rural regions in terms of future demand for inpatient hospital services. The Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR) and the Bertelsmann Foundation recently highlighted the differing population trends between individual towns and regions. This has massive implications for the future demand for healthcare infrastructure.

The projected trends in future case numbers show significant variations depending on the region and the medical specialities. For instance, eastern Germany is seeing a lower increase in inpatient cases than the west, whilst the north is experiencing a lower rise than the south. All medical specialities, with the exception of gynaecology, are showing rising demand. Across Germany, the number of hospital admissions is set to rise by 2.4 million by 2030. By then, around two-thirds of bed capacity will be occupied by patients aged over 60. Treatment costs will rise by 31.2 billion euros, or 53.6 per cent.   

The current overcapacity of 6.0 per cent in hospital beds will, due to demographic trends, fall to almost zero by 2025 even without any reduction in capacity. By 2030, without alternative care models, an additional demand of 1.7 per cent can be expected. Instead of reducing current overcapacity, a forward-looking restructuring should take place, says Prof. Dr Frank Schmitz.  

The ‘Deloitte Health Care Indicator’, developed by the firm, enables funding bodies and federal policymakers to provide new impetus for hospital demand planning. Furthermore, the ‘Deloitte Health Care Indicator’ offers individual market participants in the healthcare sector the opportunity to base their strategic decisions on a validated forecast of future regional demand trends.